How stable is the Cumbre Vieja? Enlighten Canary volcano researcher
Mega tsunami - scare-mongering:
INVOLCAN is a contra
The Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) has taken a position publicly to the stability of the volcanic ridge of Cumbre Vieja La Palma. Reason for this is again fuelled fears of many people by sensational reports in the media according to INVOLCAN, According to the micro-Quake series in the South of the island from the 7. October 2017 Once again summon the threat of mega-tsunamis through the demolition of the West side of La Palma.
Fear-mongering has been always sells well, and 1999 for the first time by Simon Day, Bill Mc Guire and Steven Ward touted island demolition theory has become a life-sellers in many media become. The trio expects, that a vertical, tens kilometers long several kilometres deep crack from the North to the South runs through the Cumbre Vieja. Along this trench, the "risk researchers" think, could break off the South-Western side of La Palma, slip into the sea and produce a mega-tsunami, If at a future volcanic eruption the water heats up, expands and blows up the rock.
The INVOLCAN scientists take the wind out of the sails the creators of panic however: The big break could not be confirmed, neither in the supposed depth, even in the assumed length. Right is only, There are weak geological layers, you came from earlier landslides. INVOLCAN therefore rejects the theory of the demolition of the western part of the Cumbre Vieja in a volcanic eruption as "to simple hypothesis". Experts from the Canary Islands explain the volcanic edifice for stable - geomechanical models and stability analysis would result in this.
Reputable scientists agree:
The Cumbre Vieja is stable!
Thus the INVOLCAN researchers now agree with scientists of the Faculty of the Hoch-Tief-Bau and Geosciences at the University of Delft in the Netherlands. The Dutch simulated volcanic eruptions and steam explosions at the computer right after the announcement of terror theory, noting, can be that the West side of La Palma can't off blow yourself up: 12.000 to 18.000 Giga-Newton, into something that corresponds to the acceleration force by 600 Millions of modern fighter jets, It would have to be aufgewändet. And this power, so the team from Delft, could where when a volcanic eruption does not rise up to, as to extend the water vapour not only sideways in rock, but entweiche to the top.
INVOLCAN complements these statements with a worst case scenario: "For a crash at the same time a very strong earthquake and an explosive eruption would have to take place, In addition, the Cumbre Vieja would 1.000 Meter be higher than it is now." To become so big, Yet an estimated needs the volcanic edifice 500.000 Years. Also, the Canary volcanologists consider the probability, that on La Palma a fire spitters with a massive explosion at the same time breaks out with a very strong earthquake, in looking at the records of the more moderate eruptions of the past as "extremely low".
Conclusion by INVOLCAN: "The Cumbre Vieja is stable ... One must take into account, that the authors of the flanks the slip theory never by a probability, but always a possibility have spoken". In addition the risk researchers had always the time "sooner or later, you don't know when"very vaguely formulated and so contributed to the anxiety of the people.
These findings described here were in the framework of a project of the Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME) and INVOLCAN researchers.